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"Global Synchronized Growth" Thumbnail

"Global Synchronized Growth"

Global Market Commentary

By: Mike Earl, CFP®, CPWA®


Today's post is drawn directly from the work of Dr. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. Yardeni is an excellent provider of independent investment and economics research. In his most recent blog post, Yardeni highlights some of the key data points highlighting the global growth story occurring right now.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook for July 2017 was titled, "A Firming Recovery." The IMF had this to say about global growth: "The pickup in global growth anticipated in the April World Economic Outlook remains on track, with global output projected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018."

Here is Yardeni highlighting the key aspects to the global recovery he sees right now:

"(1) GDP & profits. The growth rate in [US] real GDP was revised higher last week, from 2.6% to 3.0% (SAAR - seasonally adjusted annual rate) for Q2. On a y/y basis, real GDP was up 2.2%. It has been fluctuating around 2.0% since mid-2010.

(2) Europe. The Eurozone’s Economic Sentiment Index rose to 111.9 during August, the highest since July 2007. It is highly correlated with the region’s real GDP growth rate on a y/y basis, which was 2.2% during Q2, the best pace since Q1-2011. The Eurozone’s M-PMI rose to 57.4 last month, matching June’s reading, which was the highest since April 2011.

(3) China. China’s official M-PMI edged up to 51.7 during August, the 11th consecutive reading above 51.0. However, its NM-PMI declined from 54.5 during July to a 15-month low of 53.4 last month.

(4) Japan. Japan’s real GDP rose 4.0% (SAAR) during Q2, the fastest such pace since Q1-2015.

(5) Global manufacturing. Last month, the global M-PMI rose to 53.1, the highest since May 2011. Solid increases were registered for both the developed economies and the emerging ones."

Global manufacturing at its highest level since May 2011

Sources: 

http://blog.yardeni.com/2017/09/global-synchronized-growth-why-now.html

http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/07/07/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2017