As students of investing and markets, one of our passions is helping our clients grow in knowledge and appreciation of how the US stock market works. What exactly is "the stock market"? Today, there are approximately 3,667 publicly-traded companies in the US -- collectively worth over $50 trillion.
Everyone knows you should start investing as young as possible. But not many people actually start investing at a young age. So how can we get this message into the minds and hearts of our children and grandchildren? My oldest is just 6, so I'll have to report back to you in about 15 years on whether our family has any success in this arena.
Am I concerned about rising inflation, absurdly low interest rates, money-printing on steroids across the developed world, a US political agenda favoring higher tax rates, relatively high stock valuations (compared to the past), and increasing political polarization in the US? Yes, I am concerned about those things. But those things don’t have anything to do with my family’s financial goals, so I won’t adjust my investment portfolio based on those concerns.
The last time I wrote about bitcoin on our blog was September 13, 2018. I was dunking on bitcoin back then, gloating about how smart we and our clients were for avoiding this asset during the late-2017 hype that drove bitcoin up to $19,835. That post hasn’t aged very well. And you know what, this post may not age well, either. Predictions are the toughest game in town. An impossible task. I won’t make any price predictions on bitcoin today, but I will share a bit of what I know.
A few years ago, I watched my then 6-year-old skip gracefully out the front door, across our porch, and finally into our chicken coop. She glided through that door with a twirl—naturally—and emerged a few minutes later with her basket crowded with the freshest eggs imaginable. Her return trip began with the same leap into a skip, but a slight misstep on the porch forced her off-balance for barely a moment…. but it was enough for those precious eggs to spill from the basket onto the porch.
We’re starting to hear the “I-word” mentioned more often as of late. Inflation is on the rise. The Federal government’s money printing machines have been on overdrive, and the US economy has taken note. Prices have begun to tick up across the economy – most notably in residential real estate. The counterpoint (as made by the Fed) is the inflation we are seeing today is merely temporary, a hangover from the COVID shutdowns.
When investing in US stocks, the longer your time horizon, the better your odds of success. Most of us know that intuitively, but following through on head knowledge with actual life choices is another matter.
U.S. Treasury bonds have not yielded this little interest since the 1940s. Based on the data, it’s fair to expect U.S. bonds to return something on the order of 2% per year over the next 10 years. You might then ask: why do we own bonds at all? The answer is because there is value in stability.
Why is the US stock market trading near all-time highs? That’s a question some of our clients are asking right now – and many more are thinking about it without vocalizing it. With the ongoing effects of COVID-19 being felt all around us, it’s natural to be skeptical of stocks going up.
There is always a market correction coming. We don’t know if it will happen next week, next month, or next year. Concern about a coming correction is not a good enough reason not to invest, because that concern will never go away.
I’m quick to admit that owning – and holding – stocks is not easy. I’ll never forget the moment a close family member (who shall remain nameless) told me in August 2011: “I never want to own stocks again. Get me out of stocks – completely.”
With this year's election just a month away, the temptation to [attempt to] time the market is as strong as ever. Our clients and friends are asking, "how will the stock market react to the election?"